THE YEAR THAT WAS... THE YEAR THAT WILL BE...

For any rational being, the First of January is just another number. Just another day in the continuum. A small dot between birth and death. It is no different from the 31^st of December; or for that matter from the 5^th of March...

But then, human beings are not wholly rational. We like to compartmentalise things. And so the 1^st of January assumes significance. It is the first day of the New Year. And, therefore, the 365 days prior to that constitute the Old Year. Once we accept this fact, then a whole new meaning is added to the day. It becomes a day of stock-taking of events past. It becomes a day of hope as we look with anticipation at the kaleidoscope of events that would unfurl before us over the next 365 days...

Having occupied a ring-side seat to political happenings in Tamilnadu for well over three decades, I shall confine this blog to political happenings in Tamilnadu in 2014 and what could be in store in 2015. Since I firmly believe in the law of karma, my task is rendered a little easier. For, I strongly believe the events to unfold will certainly be the reactions to, or consequence of the actions that have taken place in the past.

The people of Tamilnadu will remember 2014 as the year of extremes for one of the towering personalities of the decade – the supremo of the AIADMK party, J Jayalalithaa, popularly referred to as Amma. In the month of May, she led the AIADMK party, contesting without any alliance, to a resounding, unprecedented victory, winning 37 of the 39 seats in Tamilnadu. It was apparent that the spectre of the 2G scam authored by Andimuthu Raja still haunted the DMK party, just as it had during the 2011 Assembly elections.

But Jayalalithaa’s hour of glory did not bring her the happiness she had prayed and hoped for. What would have suited the AIADMK supremo more would have been a hung Parliament scenario, where, with her party’s strength she could have bargained for some plum portfolios for her party including, maybe the Deputy Prime ministership, if not the Prime ministership, for herself. But, alas, that was not to be. As the BJP surged clearly ahead of the mid-way mark, Jayalalithaa’s mammoth victory just became a statistics.

The next important development that took place last year was on September 27^th. The case of disproportionate assets against Jayalalithaa and three others based on a complaint filed by Subramaniam Swamy on June 14^th, 1996, after 18 long years of twists and turns, finally came up for judgement at a special court in Bangalore. The Tamilnadu Chief Minister arrived in a pompous cavalcade at the court of John Michael de Cunha, a lowly magisterial-level judge. Before entering the court hall, she is said to have informed her driver to keep the vehicle’s AC running as she expected to come out in five minutes. But ironically, five hours later, she was escorted amid high security to the adjoining prison to serve a prison sentence of four years. She had been found guilty of the charges made out against her. Following the conviction, she was automatically stripped of her chief ministership. The Judge also ordered her to pay a fine of Rs 100 Crores. An unprecedented sentence, an unprecedented fine and an unprecedented event in Indian politics of an all powerful chief minister of a state being ignominiously imprisoned in a neighbouring state!!

Interestingly, Jayalalithaa’s conviction and imprisonment did not bring any cheer to the rival DMK party, which had been decimated in the earlier state elections and parliamentary elections. 2G’s Damocle’s sword still hangs over the heads of the DMK’s propaganda secretary and former Union Telecom Minister A Raja, Kanimozhi, DMK Supremo M Karunanidhi’s daughter by his third wife, and Karunanidhi’s second wife Dayalu.

Which brings us to what 2015 has in store.

Jayalalithaa, who is out on bail, has filed her appeal before the Karnataka High Court and a verdict is expected by March, 2015. Her fate literally hangs on a balance. Let us look at the various options before her :

1.      

         1. The trial court verdict is overturned and the High Court sets her free : This is the best thing that can happen to Jayalalithaa. It would enable her to contest a by-election and return to the helm of affairs as Chief Minister to lead her party from the front during the next Assembly elections which are due in 2016. But given the tough stand taken by the Supreme Court on the issue of political corruption and the even tougher contents of de Cunha’s judgement order, the High Court taking a contrary view in such a high profile case, which is being watched by all, appears unlikely. Subramaniam Swamy, the original complainant and the DMK party, which impleaded itself in the case through its general secretary, K Anbazhagan, are unlikely to let Jayalalithaa have things her way.

2.          2. The trial court judgement is upheld but the sentence is reduced : If the High Court indulges in tokenism and reduces the imprisonment by a year, it would do Jayalalithaa no good, as she still would have to go to prison and she would stay debarred from elections for a further  6 years. If, on the other hand, the sentence is reduced to a year, then Jayalalithaa stands a decent chance to come back to head the campaign for the next assembly elections. However, she will again have a tough decision to make. Whether to make an appeal or not. If she does not go on appeal, then she might have to serve out her sentence in jail. The experience could be nerve-shattering for one who has lived her life on the lap of the luxury. On the other hand, if she goes on appeal, the ban on her contesting elections would continue till the appeal is decided and this could well be after the next assembly elections...

3.         3. The trial court judgement and sentence is upheld : This would effectively bring the curtains down on Jayalalithaa’s political career. Four years in jail, followed by a six year ban would effectively shunt her out of power politics for a decade. 75 would hardly be the right age for a woman of relatively poor health to restart a derailed political journey.

For the DMK, things are no better. A favourable verdict seems an unlikely event in the 2G case and the speculation today is only on the nature and quantum of punishment. To add to their woes, the squabble for control being fought by Karunanidhi’s younger son and heir apparent, M K Stalin and elder son and former Union minister, M K Azhagiri, has had a demoralising effect on the party’s rank and file. At 93+, Karunanidhi is certainly not in a fit condition to stem the rot, hold the party together and propel it to success in the hustings.

Interestingly, no political party in the state is in a position to take advantage of the cataclysms shaking the big two. Vaiko is so obsessed with Sri Lanka’s Tamils that he seems to have forgotten that this large ethnic group cannot vote for him in India. Actor-turned politician, Vijaykanth is yet to come out from under the folds of his wife Premalatha’s saree. With Bacchus as his constant companion, this reel-life hero has been relegated to the role of a real life comedian. The PMK with its frequent somersaults on alliances and issues, no longer holds the promise it once had for the backward communities. The BJP, which has been riding the Modi wave elsewhere in India, will be hard pressed to do a Jharkhand in Tamilnadu. Modi’s speechmaking capabilities will by and large be wasted in Tamilnadu, where almost half a century under the Dravidian parties has ensured the birth of two generations deficient in Hindi, the language in which Modi communicates. As for the Congress, riven by a multiplicity of factions, the lesser said the better...

Given these circumstances, 2015 promises to be O Paneerselvan’s year. Like Bharata (in the Ramayana), he has done an admirable job of warming the seat for his Amma. But if he does not come out of her shadow and assert himself as a chief minister on his own right, then the next election in Tamilnadu will deliver a verdict so fractured that it could send the state plummeting in all spheres of activity.

The reality will unfold in the days to come...